Climate change: A powerful new driver in investment migration markets.
In late 2017, Investment Migration Insider published a quick analysis of countries showing high potential as investment migration markets. The following criteria were used to identify the next big market for golden visas and investment citizenship type products:
- A large population
- Limited political freedoms and property rights, socio-economic or political instability, etc.
3. Considerable travel restrictions or low passport power
4. A large number of High Net Worth Individuals.
Using this approach, the publication whittled the list down, with Vietnam ultimately coming out tops against these criteria:
The shortlist was compiled by way of elimination.
In 2017, therefore, the biggest existing and emerging markets were:
· China (Mature market)
· Russia (Mature market)
· Vietnam (Promising emerging market)
· Egypt (Promising merging market, but serviceable via Istanbul or UAE)
· Iran (Promising emerging market, but challenges around sanctions)
But this was in 2017, and a new emerging driver warrants revisiting this analysis:
Escalating climate change.
While the entire world is experiencing the adverse consequences of global warming, the compounding effect on poorer, more unstable countries is far more pronounced.
Investment emigration: The Present vs. The Future
Emigration can be challenging in many respects, and hence only a tiny percentage of Golden Visa holders actually emigrate presently.
For them, it’s a back-up plan.
But given the dramatic escalation in climate-related catastrophes, the developing world’s rich may actually end up needing to exercise their bolt-hole options.
Within the next decade, beating the climate crisis is going to become a key challenge for those seeking to leave a multi-generational global legacy.
It should, therefore, be expected that investment migration could become a necessity, rather than a luxury, for those who can afford it as the climate crisis unfolds over the next 2 decades.
(New Zealand is going to be one of the countries least affected by climate change in the world.)
And given the amount of coverage climate change is already receiving in the global news cycle, an uptick in demand is almost guaranteed.
The Nigerian Investment Migration Opportunity in 2020
As of 2019, Nigeria has over 9,000 dollar millionaires, with a large percentage of these HNWIs living in Lagos. Moreover, Nigeria is producing new dollar millionaires at the fastest rate in the world, with Egypt, Bangladesh and Vietnam following closely behind.
Every moment of crisis comes bearing an opportunity. Life in Nigeria, as a single example, is getting harder, even for the well-heeled. Increases in rainfall, more intense storms and rising sea levels are expected to put millions of people in Lagos at risk over the next decade.
With over 17.5 million people currently living in the low-altitude city and surrounding slums, the scope for future humanitarian disasters is huge.
It, therefore, makes sense that firms such as Brookes & Partners, Beyond Residence & Citizenship, Golden Visas Nigeria and EB5 specialists Atlantic American Partners have recently been ramping up both recruitment and marketing activities in Nigeria.
As the fallout of climate change and resultant instability inevitably hits Nigeria in the future, these firms will be well-positioned to cash in when new prospective migrant investors come knocking.
In a similar vein, while Brazil’s challenges are currently more socio-political than climate-related, one can already see the impact of recent political developments in the number of Brazilians applying for Portuguese Golden Visas in 2019.
Parting observations
Moments of crisis frequently strike unannounced, so the firms that can remain agile in their execution and anti-fragile in their thinking stand to gain the lion’s share of the benefit.
Also, now is the time to start forging local partnerships for growth in countries where the climate crisis will spark sudden and significant investment migration demand in future.
